Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.320191 1.496393 1.683025 1.894980 2.128553 2.377626 2.662842
2025-01-19 1.042531 1.277792 1.542793 1.861713 2.233327 2.650843 3.153503
2025-01-26 0.875002 1.154203 1.487144 1.909417 2.426361 3.034033 3.797428
2025-02-02 0.733713 1.041097 1.428705 1.945686 2.608602 3.421025 4.481740
2025-02-09 0.608430 0.929446 1.357444 1.957045 2.760787 3.785148 5.171128
2025-02-16 0.507975 0.835345 1.296443 1.973765 2.920627 4.172184 5.921850
2025-02-23 0.408645 0.726225 1.199750 1.929650 2.993651 4.451247 6.554465
2025-03-02 0.319343 0.616050 1.085483 1.845477 3.000730 4.640022 7.079212
2025-03-09 0.264680 0.551557 1.031055 1.842677 3.123299 4.997471 7.861387
2025-03-16 0.215166 0.485953 0.964809 1.812487 3.200297 5.293470 8.575258
2025-03-23 0.187858 0.455780 0.953571 1.869392 3.416382 5.809169 9.641303
2025-03-30 0.150337 0.397016 0.882503 1.815936 3.449176 6.047168 10.306508
2025-04-06 0.122636 0.353472 0.835089 1.802553 3.554635 6.418117 11.218966
2025-04-13 0.098450 0.311251 0.782968 1.773712 3.630851 6.748283 12.090614
2025-04-20 0.084935 0.291096 0.772450 1.822046 3.846506 7.320101 13.379627
2025-04-27 0.072577 0.270355 0.757124 1.858959 4.044765 7.876135 14.675717
2025-05-04 0.060649 0.246953 0.731536 1.871511 4.198556 8.366114 15.890493
2025-05-11 0.050937 0.226775 0.709703 1.888918 4.362637 8.883779 17.179140
2025-05-18 0.040278 0.199187 0.663864 1.847388 4.406917 9.191066 18.125484
2025-05-25 0.030337 0.169228 0.604884 1.766978 4.364156 9.336404 18.797498
2025-06-01 0.024826 0.153412 0.580899 1.764890 4.481682 9.782792 20.019422
2025-06-08 0.019632 0.135978 0.548070 1.736240 4.539547 10.119343 21.060371
2025-06-15 0.017208 0.129970 0.548593 1.791555 4.783633 10.824580 22.799642